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Tarek Saad

CSC Price Forecast - 2023 (Using SMA Economical Module)

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But still a little hard to have the correct price when you have things like new exchanges, FOMO, marketing, new operators, BRM release, the users of the BRM

I tend to leave BTC out. 

I try to match it more to CSC/USD as the BRM will be 100% Fiat to CSC. 

But I see your point.   Great Post.  👍

 

 

 

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@Ermac true, this is why exactly i stated that my prediction is independent of exchange listing and BTC future price... It is most realsitic when it comes to price as compared to makret share from the industry.

Fomo would not count in future forecasts as fomos are a current state of mind that influences on a short term not a long term

 

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In CSC's former life using Litecoin would your model have predicted the price rising to 53 cents?

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@Tarek Saad Thanks for sharing. Great effort.

I'm curious to see if CSC and other digital assets will also be used beyond the world of online gambling ... e.g. think online gaming, maybe usage in RL etc.

Also interesting is the issue what part of the price level will be due to usage and what part will be due to speculation ...  

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@CasinoCoin the module used to forescast is based on capturing a % of the online gambling market share and NOT the crypto currencies market share. Therefore, using this module wont work in forecasting the price of csc neither previously on the litecoin nor xrp technology noting that up until this day and until casinocoin goes live... Csc has 0% share from the global market cap of online gambling. The projected figures , again, as mentioned in the post are solely built around a % of online gambling market share that csc would be able to capture in the future,... To sum it up.. the value of CSC would be what i mentioned in the post + the value it would capture from the cryptocurrency market share as a result of exchange listing and marketing

 

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@Rey the online gambling market share includes all online gaming that has monetary transactions involved (ie sports betting, lotto, bingo, etc).. Real life casinos are not included and this would def increase the forecasted figures

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Great effort and a very good and realistic Post @Tarek Saad even though, the Cryptomarket is not realistic, or act as. I will keep this in mind 👍

Edited by Zenkert
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I'm no economist and just trying to understand your reasoning, but I didn't think you could just transfer Europe's market cap of online gambling to CSC market cap.

Would this not be more like an expected yearly volume? Isn't your $ 29.06 B is the total money going through the gambling industry in a year, so surely CSC isn't 'taking' this share as its own market cap if used, it's just being used to transact in and out of the platform.

Edited by Chris
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@Chris CSC's market cap would be a percentage from europe's market cap so long it is operating and regulated in the european market, if CSC gets asian operators it will also capture a percentage of the asian market share.... (Am talking about online gambling market share NOT crypto market share). The B $29.06 would be the accumulated market share of this industry in europe by 2023, not a yearly average or yearly volume. The % csc would be able to capture from this market depends not on the ins and outs transactions on the paltform alone, but majorily on the number of platforms that will demand a certain # of csc holding to circulate in their games..  lets say company X has a capital of $1 M dollars  and decided to buy 200,000 USD worth of CSC this will increase csc market cap by 200,000 $ or 20% from company X's share in the market.... Got the logic? 

 

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3 hours ago, Tarek Saad said:

Also this forecast does not take into account the capital attracted from non-gambling activities. That is to say, the forecast does not include capital changes from listing in major exchanges which would certainly increase the forecasted figures significantly.

I think that this point is what most "sloppy readers" might miss. Maybe you should edit you original post @Tarek Saad and make that text bold, like I did above.

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1 hour ago, Tarek Saad said:

lets say company X has a capital of $1 M dollars  and decided to buy 200,000 USD worth of CSC this will increase csc market cap by 200,000 $ or 20% from company X's share in the market.... Got the logic? 

 

4

I think this is where I don't agree ^

If you buy $200000 worth of CSC you don't increase the market cap by $200000. It's just $200000 of volume through the market. With a large enough order book (e.g XRP or Bitcoin) the price, and therefore market cap, could not even/barely change.

With Bitcoin on binance with $ 10,000 I could often not even move the price (I just checked binance and there was a 57BTC sell order). the $10,000 would get you your ~3BTC but the price, and therefore market cap, would stay the same. 

Equally with a very small order book like we currently have with CSC, If I had $10,000 (~3BTC) I could eat up the order book on Stex for 6, 7, and 8 sats and start on the 9 sats orders. This would push the price up 3 sats from 6 sats to 9 sats. (I know there is more than one exchange/pairing but for simplicity, it doesn't matter for this example)

3 sats=$0.0001018095 *36billion CSC is a market cap increase of almost $3.6 Million

So with $10,000 I could increase the market cap of CSC by $3.6million. This is why small markets are prone to manipulation.

 

My point is that you can't equate money being put into the market as an increase in market cap. It's just additional Volume in the market.

I also do not believe that if 10% of online gambling was using CSC this would mean that 10% of the $26B was directly invested into CSC. People put it in, make a bet, and then take it out and sell it back to fiat, it's just volume.

I think the first bit of your post is a good SMA analysis and is a good discussion point, I just disagree about taking the percentage of gambling market cap and adding it to CSC market cap. The utilization of CSC would be great and I'm sure it will increase the price along with other factors. I'm just sceptical of your exact values (whether higher or lower) and methodology.

Edited by Chris
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1 hour ago, Chris said:

I'm no economist

 

5 minutes ago, Chris said:

My point is that you can't equate money being put into the market as an increase in market cap. It's just additional Volume in the market.

LOL @Chris No economist . . . :classic_laugh:

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21 minutes ago, Zenkert said:

 

LOL @Chris No economist . . . :classic_laugh:

Please help me understand if you disagree then. I'm just trying to have a discussion. Market cap is not the total money in the coin, see the attached article explaining my point about market cap not being directly equal to money in the market: http://galgitron.net/Post/The-Myth-of-Market-Cap---Version-2

Edited by Chris

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By this method, XRP price will be many many times higher than now.

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22 minutes ago, Chris said:

Please help me understand if you disagree then. I'm just trying to have a discussion. Market cap is not the total money in the coin, see the attached article explaining my point about market cap not being directly equal to money in the market: http://galgitron.net/Post/The-Myth-of-Market-Cap---Version-2

I do not disagree, I was being ironic since all you said was more or less economic. I understand nada of the economics around the DA market. I just bought and hope get some nice ROI.
Furthermore overanalyzing stuff will not help. That´s why I mostly lurk these days, I have what I have. I might loose, I might win. Just having fun. That´s all.
As of now the DA market is in denial. BS (Balls of Steel) is needed and might be needed for a long time. Weak hands sell. Strong hands cry but HODL, or buy more.

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@Chris you are right.. OP calculated scenarios of csc capturing "yearly" percentage of gambling volume and calculated price.. The method he used would only make sense if you were able to break it down to a weekly or even daily volume bc of the points you mentioned players coming in and out. The price of csc would have to be 100% adopted on 100% of the platforms to even sniff these targets imo... Even if platforms begin to accept this as an option, the time it takes players to realize its benefits and move over might take a very long time as well. Bc its a complete paradigm shift of not gambling with fiat but now gambling with a crypto.. When we all know  simply holding a crypto can be gambling lol which some will like but the vast majority this will take some getting used to IF they ever even come around.

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@Tarek Saad good effort thou and interesting read.. Just understand the yearly volume numbers are not as important to the price as the daily volume, daily demand vs floating supply

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Had you tried forecasting The Useless Ethereum Token? https://coinmarketcap.com/fr/currencies/useless-ethereum-token/

With a high of $0.24 in Jan 2018.. Doubt anyone would have forecasted this right lol. I try not to predict too much in the cryptosphere... but when I do, I predict more than I can imagine because in the end it's what always happens.

 

Edit; nonetheless, thanks for your post. Gives a nicepoint of view and some nice info!

Edited by DanBilzerian
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1 hour ago, Chris said:

I think this is where I don't agree ^

If you buy $200000 worth of CSC you don't increase the market cap by $200000. It's just $200000 of volume through the market. With a large enough order book (e.g XRP or Bitcoin) the price, and therefore market cap, could not even/barely change.

With Bitcoin on binance with $ 10,000 I could often not even move the price (I just checked binance and there was a 57BTC sell order). the $10,000 would get you your ~3BTC but the price, and therefore market cap, would stay the same. 

Equally with a very small order book like we currently have with CSC, If I had $10,000 (~3BTC) I could eat up the order book on Stex for 6, 7, and 8 sats and start on the 9 sats orders. This would push the price up 3 sats from 6 sats to 9 sats. (I know there is more than one exchange/pairing but for simplicity, it doesn't matter for this example)

3 sats=$0.0001018095 *36billion CSC is a market cap increase of almost $3.6 Million

So with $10,000 I could increase the market cap of CSC by $3.6million. This is why small markets are prone to manipulation.

 

My point is that you can't equate money being put into the market as an increase in market cap. It's just additional Volume in the market.

I also do not believe that if 10% of online gambling was using CSC this would mean that 10% of the $26B was directly invested into CSC. People put it in, make a bet, and then take it out and sell it back to fiat, it's just volume.

I think the first bit of your post is a good SMA analysis and is a good discussion point, I just disagree about taking the percentage of gambling market cap and adding it to CSC market cap. The utilization of CSC would be great and I'm sure it will increase the price along with other factors. I'm just sceptical of your exact values (whether higher or lower) and methodology.

I agree with you on the Market Cap Volume thing...  :good:

Also, this is why CSC will skyrocket pretty high because it has very small sell walls... As you said, you don't need too much money to raise the price. I just checked STEX and the "big" sell walls (Only 14BTC) starts at 1450 Satoshis. If it goes that high it will be a 29,000% raise.

I like your analisys though @Tarek Saad!!!... Thanks for your contribution!!... :drinks:

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On July 5th 2017 The Useless Ethereum Token went to $26.10 which is ridiculous. Something weird going on there..

Z3ynLnt.png

 

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